Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +110 UNI -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +3 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -6.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -6.4 (-3.4) | 132.2 (-9.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -5.3 (-2.3) | 132.5 (-9.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -3.6 (-0.6) | 132.0 (-9.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -5.3 (-2.3) | 131.5 (-8.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 62.5 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#33) | 6.9 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#21) | 2.32 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.15 (#10) | 2.96 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#29) | 0.597 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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