Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | GWEB +470 NAVY -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +33 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -15.5 (-17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -8.4 (-24.6) | 150.4 (-15.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -9.7 (-23.3) | 145.8 (-10.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -11.0 (-22.0) | 147.5 (-12.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -11.4 (-21.6) | 150.2 (-15.2) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-29 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 17-1 |
| Home | 3-10 | 15-2 |
| Away | 0-16 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 86.7 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#347) | 1.6 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#307) | 0.73 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#312) | 1.05 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#253) | 0.582 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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