Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | FIU -205 OMA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | FIU -6.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (-27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -3.2 (+9.8) | 150.6 (-15.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -3.8 (+9.2) | 148.7 (-13.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -4.0 (+9.0) | 151.5 (-16.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -4.5 (+8.5) | 152.6 (-17.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#264) | -6.7 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#323) | -1.87 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#315) | -2.69 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#180) | 0.384 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 16.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 58.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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