Betting Lines
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -1450 BU +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +9 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -15.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -16.9 (-7.9) | 137.0 (+46.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -15.2 (-6.2) | 142.3 (+40.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -16.3 (-7.3) | 143.7 (+39.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -17.6 (-8.6) | 138.7 (+44.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#83) | -2.3 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#76) | 0.39 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#78) | -1.74 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#42) | 0.519 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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