Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | GASO -175 UTSA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +13 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | GASO -6.8 (-19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -5.2 (-18.2) | 147.8 (-6.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GASO -4.4 (-17.4) | 145.9 (-4.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | GASO -4.2 (-17.2) | 143.4 (-2.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -3.5 (-16.5) | 144.4 (-3.4) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-17 |
| Home | 9-5 | 2-12 |
| Away | 6-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 82.9 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#216) | -8.8 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#212) | -0.58 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#271) | -1.21 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#254) | 0.410 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 59.8% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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