I'm going to Wichita, far from this opera for evermore. "Seven Nation Army" - The White Stripes
New Mexico State Aggies
77 58
FINAL Neutral Cancun Challenge
Georgia State Panthers
Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya (Neutral) · November 26, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread NMSU -12.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money NMSU -900 / GAST +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total NMSU win
Actual NMSU +19 135 Won
Massey NMSU -15.8 (+3.2)
Massey Totals 141.8 (-6.8)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML NMSU -14.5 (+4.5) 134.7 (+0.3) 85%
Model 4 ML NMSU -14.3 (+4.7) 133.7 (+1.3) 86%
Model 3 ML NMSU -12.7 (+6.3) 137.2 (-2.2) 88%
Baseline ML NMSU -13.7 (+5.3) 134.9 (+0.1) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NMSU GAST
Overall 16-16 10-22
Conference 8-12 7-11
Home 10-5 7-7
Away 3-8 3-12
Neutral 3-3 0-3
Last 5 3-0 0-5
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 73.9 68.4
Avg Pts Against 73.8 75.4
Massey 1.8 (#137) -14.0 (#348)
Bradley-Terry 1.85 (#57) -3.37 (#352)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.92 (#60) -4.63 (#345)
RPI 0.735 (#2) 0.349 (#343)
Shooting & Four Factors NMSU GAST
FG% 47.8% 33.2%
3PT% 35.4% 26.5%
REB / G 36.0 32.5
OREB / G 10.5 10.5
AST / TO 2.21 0.74
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.3% 39.3%
TOV% 11.1% 20.3%
ORB% 31.3% 26.8%
FT Rate 28.3% 27.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 53.1%
Opp TOV% 12.3% 18.4%
DRB% 72.9% 64.4%
Opp FT Rate 26.1% 25.8%

Game Analysis

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