Betting Lines
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +3 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -2.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.1 (-4.1) | 134.1 (+30.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -1.8 (-4.8) | 136.2 (+28.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -1.4 (-4.4) | 136.8 (+28.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -1.1 (-4.1) | 134.9 (+30.1) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | -0.5 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#165) | 0.14 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#151) | 0.36 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#110) | 0.583 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 56.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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