Betting Lines
| Spread | M-OH -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG +425 M-OH -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | M-OH -12.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -7.9 (-3.1) | 151.1 (+1.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -7.8 (-3.2) | 148.6 (+4.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -8.2 (-2.8) | 152.2 (+0.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -6.8 (-4.2) | 150.7 (+2.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 32-2 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 18-0 |
| Home | 8-6 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-9 | 14-0 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 86.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#288) | 4.8 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#298) | 2.33 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#279) | 3.51 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#317) | 0.561 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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