Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -535 USI +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +8 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -13.5 (-21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -11.2 (-19.2) | 146.4 (-26.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -10.8 (-18.8) | 141.8 (-21.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -11.6 (-19.6) | 144.2 (-24.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -11.9 (-19.9) | 147.1 (-27.1) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 13-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#243) | -11.7 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#132) | -3.89 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#162) | -5.48 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#201) | 0.285 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 23.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 38.9% |
Game Analysis
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