We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–22 on winners spread MAE 10.4 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne -10.7 123.5 17% 65–61 ✓
Marist @ Rider +1.9 136.7 57% 76–67 ✗
Northwestern @ Penn State +7.4 151.0 75% 78–81 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Siena +2.7 131.6 60% 40–47 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +4.0 142.7 64% 54–76 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco +4.1 126.1 65% 67–63 ✗
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount +8.1 125.2 77% 72–69 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge -15.1 150.9 8% 80–66 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +5.4 114.8 69% 63–70 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +21.5 132.0 97% 44–67 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +11.7 139.0 86% 62–64 ✓
USC @ California -11.3 136.6 15% 76–68 ✓
Colorado @ Washington State -12.3 134.9 13% 70–59 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +6.2 140.7 71% 58–60 ✓
South Dakota @ Western Illinois -8.1 140.9 23% 84–74 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +3.6 138.5 63% 56–71 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP +1.6 141.7 56% 73–55 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton +2.4 154.6 59% 76–53 ✗
Missouri @ Tennessee +8.5 129.0 78% 73–64 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +16.2 147.7 93% 74–85 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +17.0 138.6 94% 58–84 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Murray State +10.5 139.1 83% 63–72 ✓
Long Beach State @ California Baptist +5.7 173.8 70% 75–96 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech -11.5 142.3 15% 81–46 ✓
Pacific @ Gonzaga +22.9 157.0 98% 49–95 ✓
Pepperdine @ BYU +14.8 150.8 91% 54–65 ✓
Oregon State @ Oregon +17.2 140.2 94% 75–64 ✗
Rutgers @ Indiana +6.1 138.8 71% 74–70 ✗
Davidson @ Massachusetts +1.5 158.8 55% 69–60 ✗
James Madison @ Northeastern +5.5 139.0 69% 79–72 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -3.1 148.4 39% 77–81 ✗
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington +8.0 138.3 77% 67–62 ✗
Delaware State @ Morgan State +21.4 164.0 97% 83–99 ✓
Stony Brook @ NJIT +5.4 144.0 69% 56–44 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +18.8 135.1 96% 62–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross +5.9 148.2 71% 82–74 ✗
Radford @ UNC Asheville +1.0 142.3 54% 68–76 ✓
Presbyterian @ High Point +6.6 127.0 73% 57–81 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire +1.6 134.7 56% 83–64 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee -11.2 136.1 15% 68–52 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +7.9 142.7 76% 69–74 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +22.3 122.5 98% 42–52 ✓
Army @ Navy +0.6 135.5 52% 87–78 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Bradley -7.3 126.7 25% 69–56 ✓
Utah @ Washington -5.1 139.6 32% 79–83 ✗
Memphis @ East Carolina -0.5 128.0 48% 80–53 ✓
Nevada @ Wyoming -3.1 153.4 39% 88–93 ✗
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +2.6 136.5 59% 70–66 ✗
Notre Dame @ Miami +0.5 142.5 52% 73–59 ✗
Boston University @ Lafayette +9.7 155.5 81% 64–61 ✗
American University @ Loyola Maryland +3.8 142.6 63% 81–79 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.