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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–15 on winners spread MAE 8.9 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut	+8.3	133.7	81%	69–76	✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner	+11.9	147.5	86%	71–69	✗
Mercyhurst @ Long Island University	+9.6	137.3	83%	58–60	✓
New Haven @ Le Moyne	+2.0	131.5	53%	47–73	✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT	+1.1	138.6	46%	76–80	✓
Binghamton @ Vermont	+16.6	145.5	90%	59–60	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern	-3.5	138.0	34%	87–78	✓
Elon @ North Carolina A&T	-4.3	158.3	29%	69–64	✓
Hampton @ Campbell	+3.9	139.8	70%	72–86	✓
William & Mary @ Monmouth	-2.2	148.7	47%	70–81	✗
Stony Brook @ Drexel	+2.7	132.6	64%	37–56	✓
App State @ Georgia State	-2.4	139.2	39%	52–50	✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina	+1.6	145.1	56%	70–66	✗
West Georgia @ North Florida	-0.1	158.5	59%	85–73	✓
Queens University @ Jacksonville	-1.9	151.4	54%	77–51	✓
North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky	+4.0	141.4	66%	80–88	✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson	-12.5	150.8	14%	83–91	✗
Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine	-0.9	151.7	47%	78–84	✗
Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast	+2.6	149.8	61%	82–71	✗
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech	-3.8	134.8	29%	72–56	✓
UT Martin @ Morehead State	-2.9	134.6	42%	76–68	✓
Delaware @ Sam Houston	+11.2	141.1	86%	60–72	✓
Denver @ South Dakota State	+6.5	162.0	80%	79–87	✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City	-9.5	145.4	18%	97–73	✓
North Dakota @ Omaha	+4.3	145.9	67%	79–90	✓
Texas State @ Southern Miss	+7.3	140.6	80%	70–80	✓
Weber State @ Northern Arizona	-2.0	146.1	41%	78–65	✓
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado	+1.9	152.1	66%	72–85	✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley	+21.1	148.8	91%	72–89	✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State	+5.8	142.0	79%	84–80	✗
Rutgers @ Illinois	+20.1	149.4	90%	55–81	✓
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois	-7.9	140.5	20%	90–68	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana	-7.0	140.6	26%	84–76	✓
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville	+5.9	132.2	67%	73–70	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois	+0.9	137.4	44%	61–71	✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana	+5.3	133.4	69%	79–85	✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara	+4.2	145.0	74%	93–86	✗
Montana @ Idaho	+4.2	148.5	71%	79–73	✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington	-2.4	147.8	39%	68–64	✓
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP	-7.7	133.9	25%	80–83	✗
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State	+2.7	149.7	66%	64–80	✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego	+3.7	140.9	63%	63–83	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield	+1.2	143.5	70%	66–67	✓
Seattle U @ Oregon State	-3.0	141.4	39%	55–68	✗
Pacific @ Portland	-3.7	140.1	37%	89–90	✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge	+3.8	160.2	72%	90–95	✓
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine	+12.0	143.4	87%	64–74	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego	+16.8	156.9	89%	88–71	✗
Utah Tech @ California Baptist	+6.6	140.3	76%	72–84	✓
Ohio State @ Oregon	+0.2	148.0	56%	72–62	✗
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount	+0.7	138.6	53%	82–84	✓
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga	+14.6	158.3	86%	77–89	✓
Miami (OH) @ Toledo	-1.5	157.9	46%	87–73	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.