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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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59–14 on winners spread MAE 10.7 73 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Omaha @ James Madison	+6.4	142.4	68%	77–88	✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina Upstate	+11.2	139.6	86%	67–82	✓
Boston University @ Penn State	+16.9	137.0	88%	87–96	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Florida State	+23.2	155.8	90%	59–89	✓
Old Dominion @ Villanova	+22.4	142.5	89%	75–89	✓
Wright State @ Stetson	-2.5	145.0	35%	79–62	✓
Rice @ Florida Gulf Coast	+7.1	150.0	73%	63–78	✓
Houston Christian @ Bellarmine	+0.8	135.1	50%	69–74	✓
Hampton @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-2.2	132.3	23%	74–68	✓
Chicago State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+10.0	143.7	84%	77–90	✓
Quinnipiac @ UCF	+13.1	151.2	85%	91–102	✓
Campbell @ Wake Forest	+14.6	156.5	88%	51–99	✓
Lehigh @ Marist	+8.6	124.4	73%	55–78	✓
Coppin State @ Rider	+7.0	135.7	74%	68–65	✗
George Mason @ Florida Atlantic	-2.1	142.4	44%	74–65	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Central Arkansas	+2.1	137.4	59%	60–81	✓
Murray State @ George Washington	+8.2	167.5	83%	96–95	✗
Temple @ Princeton	-2.9	142.9	37%	79–75	✓
Kansas State @ Indiana	+7.6	155.1	67%	69–86	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas A&M	+26.6	153.1	91%	84–120	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Cal Poly	+5.9	150.3	74%	84–68	✗
South Carolina State @ Missouri	+26.9	152.0	91%	66–98	✓
Eastern Washington @ North Texas	+12.2	133.3	85%	71–79	✓
Northern Illinois @ Austin Peay	+9.7	141.6	84%	59–77	✓
Washington State @ Arizona State	+6.5	144.1	70%	94–100	✓
Auburn @ Michigan	+5.5	159.6	64%	72–102	✓
Winthrop @ Nebraska	+9.3	153.9	78%	73–80	✓
New Mexico State @ UC Irvine	-1.3	139.5	49%	57–45	✓
UTSA @ Georgia Southern	+4.4	145.9	63%	77–64	✗
Oakland @ Montana	+4.3	157.8	75%	95–87	✗
Portland State @ Utah Tech	-0.1	150.0	56%	68–63	✓
Maryland @ Gonzaga	+16.7	146.0	87%	61–100	✓
Ole Miss @ Iowa	+5.0	137.8	70%	69–74	✓
UCLA @ California	-2.9	138.1	35%	72–80	✗
San Diego State @ Oregon	-0.0	142.4	64%	97–80	✓
UNLV @ Alabama	+9.6	168.4	80%	76–115	✓
Utah @ Grand Canyon	+3.6	153.8	69%	58–68	✓
Saint Francis @ Troy	+20.2	156.1	89%	64–74	✓
Bowling Green @ VMI	-8.6	148.7	17%	81–48	✓
Vanderbilt @ Western Kentucky	-6.6	164.1	24%	83–78	✓
Towson @ UC San Diego	+2.8	131.8	58%	73–87	✓
UMass Lowell @ Stonehill	+7.9	142.0	82%	75–64	✗
Syracuse @ Iowa State	+10.6	143.0	86%	64–95	✓
New Orleans @ Texas Tech	+15.6	150.8	88%	50–82	✓
Brown @ New Hampshire	+1.5	133.4	40%	59–47	✗
Belmont @ Toledo	-2.9	145.0	40%	87–72	✓
Buffalo @ Bucknell	-6.3	138.4	30%	73–71	✓
San José State @ Loyola Chicago	-2.7	130.4	42%	63–51	✓
Miami (OH) @ UNC Greensboro	-7.9	151.1	24%	82–71	✓
Omaha @ Florida International	+3.2	150.6	65%	61–74	✓
App State @ Mercer	+8.8	141.4	78%	67–75	✓
UIC @ Robert Morris	+3.6	141.7	63%	74–88	✓
Wofford @ Northern Kentucky	+4.2	144.1	71%	83–93	✓
Army @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+3.7	147.4	60%	81–73	✗
USC @ Arizona State	-3.2	161.9	38%	88–75	✓
Liberty @ Bradley	-3.3	144.0	33%	64–74	✗
South Florida @ VCU	+1.8	164.8	67%	66–78	✓
North Dakota State @ Jacksonville State	-4.4	134.1	35%	56–43	✓
Southern Indiana @ Valparaiso	+11.2	146.4	84%	64–56	✗
Georgia State @ New Mexico State	+14.3	133.7	86%	58–77	✓
Notre Dame @ Houston	+8.3	130.8	74%	56–66	✓
Lipscomb @ Marshall	+8.3	150.5	78%	90–67	✗
Navy @ Gardner-Webb	-8.4	150.4	18%	84–51	✓
Harvard @ Boston College	+6.0	132.8	74%	60–73	✓
Northern Iowa @ Tulsa	+6.4	132.2	68%	60–63	✓
Oral Roberts @ Rice	+1.3	146.7	65%	62–81	✓
Vermont @ Princeton	-5.8	146.4	35%	79–74	✓
Wagner @ Manhattan	-1.1	150.5	59%	103–101	✓
Virginia Tech @ Colorado State	+2.5	154.9	50%	66–64	✗
Seton Hall @ Washington State	-7.6	139.6	26%	75–61	✓
Samford @ Utah Valley	+5.9	145.5	74%	45–89	✓
Northern Colorado @ Air Force	-4.7	148.9	36%	71–53	✓
Sam Houston @ Idaho State	+1.1	134.1	54%	84–81	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.