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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
39–14 on winners
spread MAE 8.2
53 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+17.6 | 161.8 | 89% | 79–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 130.3 | 63% | 54–51 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 142.9 | 59% | 72–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 153.2 | 86% | 75–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 136.1 | 82% | 56–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 142.7 | 67% | 65–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 151.1 | 82% | 67–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 151.5 | 79% | 62–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 152.1 | 62% | 80–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.8 | 145.0 | 54% | 144–149 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 137.6 | 88% | 53–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.4 | 148.5 | 18% | 93–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 133.4 | 74% | 67–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 128.0 | 70% | 60–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 132.3 | 41% | 64–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.5 | 141.6 | 82% | 77–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 135.1 | 67% | 64–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 132.6 | 65% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 135.6 | 66% | 59–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 161.6 | 67% | 77–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 134.7 | 71% | 72–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 135.9 | 76% | 46–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 143.9 | 76% | 62–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 138.2 | 37% | 84–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 141.3 | 83% | 68–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.5 | 129.8 | 24% | 84–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 135.9 | 41% | 76–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.4 | 143.7 | 56% | 63–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.5 | 134.2 | 27% | 79–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 147.2 | 37% | 67–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.9 | 154.4 | 76% | 67–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 137.6 | 45% | 61–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.8 | 131.0 | 84% | 61–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 139.9 | 45% | 58–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.3 | 129.2 | 71% | 58–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 144.9 | 62% | 75–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.6 | 145.0 | 74% | 85–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 130.2 | 74% | 72–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.3 | 150.0 | 86% | 74–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+19.2 | 137.3 | 90% | 59–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 136.5 | 62% | 49–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.6 | 146.5 | 89% | 61–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 136.0 | 40% | 72–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.5 | 130.6 | 78% | 47–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.1 | 130.5 | 30% | 64–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 138.7 | 52% | 66–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.4 | 147.3 | 78% | 68–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 127.9 | 74% | 80–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 131.8 | 58% | 56–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 144.0 | 72% | 67–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 134.7 | 64% | 58–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 136.4 | 46% | 66–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 149.0 | 76% | 68–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.