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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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53–20 on winners spread MAE 10.7 73 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Niagara @ Duke +24.1 138.6 91% 42–100 ✓
Merrimack @ Florida +19.7 146.4 91% 45–80 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Kentucky +22.8 148.3 90% 46–88 ✓
Mississippi State @ New Mexico +3.3 142.4 70% 78–80 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Western Illinois +0.9 131.2 49% 84–64 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ West Georgia +4.3 144.5 66% 64–72 ✓
Morehead State @ East Tennessee State +11.9 145.4 85% 62–77 ✓
Wake Forest @ Memphis -4.9 147.2 31% 69–68 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Radford -7.9 139.2 21% 81–73 ✓
UAlbany @ Siena +12.2 130.3 84% 63–73 ✓
Charleston Southern @ East Carolina +4.9 149.9 71% 77–65 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Canisius +2.7 125.3 59% 57–60 ✓
Army @ Marist +16.3 128.7 88% 65–76 ✓
Morgan State @ Old Dominion +4.8 148.1 65% 56–88 ✓
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart +5.7 136.3 68% 66–79 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Drexel +7.8 144.8 77% 84–68 ✗
Northern Colorado @ St. Thomas-Minnesota -3.6 146.1 33% 72–73 ✗
South Alabama @ UAB +11.6 138.4 83% 72–80 ✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas +24.9 150.2 91% 61–115 ✓
Georgia State @ South Dakota State +8.0 133.4 77% 58–105 ✓
Omaha @ LSU +23.0 155.1 91% 73–99 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tulsa +9.5 138.7 80% 75–84 ✓
Hampton @ Norfolk State +4.5 125.9 66% 60–62 ✓
Little Rock @ Texas State +6.7 132.8 71% 56–65 ✓
Evansville @ Oregon State +6.4 141.9 73% 73–69 ✗
Manhattan @ Texas A&M +13.1 149.5 87% 68–109 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Saint Louis +20.9 154.0 91% 60–91 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +3.8 145.9 61% 76–59 ✗
UC Riverside @ San Diego +8.0 142.3 78% 85–71 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Pepperdine +4.0 148.7 63% 63–60 ✗
Denver @ Colorado State +17.5 150.9 88% 83–81 ✗
Northwestern State @ Grand Canyon +17.2 147.7 89% 72–85 ✓
Samford @ New Mexico State +12.5 145.7 87% 72–81 ✓
UC Davis @ Colorado +11.0 147.6 81% 79–95 ✓
Arkansas State @ SMU +16.5 158.7 89% 69–100 ✓
Georgia @ Xavier -10.5 150.6 21% 78–77 ✓
New Orleans @ Fresno State +1.9 142.3 48% 76–85 ✓
Texas Tech @ Purdue +2.4 145.7 68% 56–86 ✓
Kansas State @ Nebraska +2.6 158.3 62% 85–86 ✓
Southern @ San José State +7.0 154.3 73% 66–80 ✓
Louisiana @ Santa Clara +22.0 139.8 91% 43–80 ✓
Grambling @ California Baptist +15.8 141.1 88% 59–72 ✓
Montana State @ Long Beach State -2.2 134.4 39% 78–72 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Portland +4.3 146.4 66% 85–103 ✓
Seattle U @ Stanford +9.6 148.7 80% 77–69 ✗
Sacramento State @ California +19.2 147.3 89% 67–91 ✓
Presbyterian @ UCLA +16.0 129.1 87% 46–86 ✓
Wagner @ Georgetown +12.5 142.3 85% 75–92 ✓
NJIT @ Navy +9.9 135.2 85% 70–86 ✓
Fairfield @ Le Moyne +2.5 143.3 54% 97–83 ✗
Harvard @ Boston University -1.6 138.9 46% 74–75 ✗
Long Island University @ Illinois +21.4 152.0 90% 58–98 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Saint Peter's +12.6 148.0 87% 66–68 ✓
Central Michigan @ Marquette +11.9 144.5 85% 71–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Kent State +14.1 160.2 88% 71–91 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Dayton +18.7 142.9 91% 55–74 ✓
Nicholls @ Oklahoma State +19.4 142.3 90% 81–95 ✓
Green Bay @ Massachusetts +4.9 141.5 73% 79–75 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Binghamton -0.2 124.5 53% 63–52 ✓
Mercer @ Eastern Kentucky +2.6 146.4 61% 95–83 ✗
Providence @ Penn State +5.6 161.2 75% 77–65 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Cal State Bakersfield +15.1 143.6 89% 70–86 ✓
Northeastern @ Duquesne +2.1 143.2 64% 93–86 ✗
Niagara @ Howard -3.0 124.8 38% 70–80 ✗
North Alabama @ Chattanooga +4.8 145.9 68% 57–71 ✓
Southern Indiana @ UIC +9.6 143.7 84% 73–84 ✓
UT Martin @ Prairie View A&M -10.5 148.0 18% 69–68 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Nevada +3.8 156.0 64% 64–77 ✓
Western Carolina @ Lipscomb +3.1 144.0 62% 62–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Missouri State -0.6 144.9 41% 67–74 ✗
Iona @ Oregon State -2.0 148.5 43% 91–84 ✓
San Francisco @ Minnesota +2.9 127.9 68% 77–65 ✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Cal State Fullerton -5.0 146.8 30% 80–88 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.