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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–15 on winners spread MAE 11.1 48 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Incarnate Word @ High Point	+12.2	147.9	86%	80–91	✓
Morehead State @ UL Monroe	-0.8	143.2	41%	83–80	✓
Coastal Carolina @ North Dakota	-4.1	135.9	35%	75–58	✓
VMI @ Stetson	+3.9	140.9	65%	80–99	✓
Ball State @ Indiana State	+10.4	138.6	85%	52–70	✓
Milwaukee @ Wichita State	+19.5	152.1	90%	58–75	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Richmond	+19.7	151.5	91%	67–102	✓
Coppin State @ VCU	+23.8	143.1	91%	58–101	✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland	+0.8	146.5	52%	86–80	✗
North Florida @ Southern Miss	+7.1	153.0	79%	83–92	✓
UT Arlington @ Weber State	+3.8	140.0	67%	74–73	✗
Northern Iowa @ UC Irvine	-1.7	126.8	32%	70–69	✓
Clemson @ Georgia	+2.1	147.9	62%	97–94	✗
Alabama State @ SIU Edwardsville	-0.2	132.3	50%	68–83	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Miami (OH)	+17.3	152.1	90%	84–111	✓
Binghamton @ Canisius	+3.8	132.5	62%	66–75	✓
Delaware State @ Miami	+25.1	139.1	91%	41–97	✓
South Carolina State @ South Dakota	+13.3	145.3	87%	81–82	✓
Old Dominion @ Drexel	+3.5	141.9	63%	71–75	✓
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma	+20.9	155.7	91%	53–72	✓
West Georgia @ Georgia Tech	+8.6	133.5	76%	66–82	✓
Eastern Washington @ Central Arkansas	-7.7	146.6	23%	65–92	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Northern Colorado	+8.2	154.2	82%	93–97	✓
Brown @ Maine	+5.5	128.7	67%	58–53	✗
Longwood @ Columbia	+11.6	143.1	87%	70–95	✓
Butler @ Virginia	+1.5	147.6	62%	80–73	✗
Prairie View A&M @ North Florida	-0.5	151.2	47%	85–82	✓
Southern Illinois @ Delaware	-1.6	155.3	46%	79–59	✓
Robert Morris @ Monmouth	+5.4	142.1	68%	70–71	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Western Michigan	+6.0	143.2	71%	60–83	✓
West Virginia @ Xavier	-3.8	132.4	40%	68–78	✗
Howard @ Duke	+25.1	143.8	90%	56–93	✓
Lamar @ Montana	+5.6	147.0	72%	68–63	✗
UL Monroe @ East Tennessee State	+12.9	140.9	87%	55–97	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Portland	+3.0	142.9	63%	76–66	✗
Norfolk State @ Wyoming	+15.8	134.2	87%	67–75	✓
South Carolina @ Northwestern	+6.9	143.2	78%	77–79	✓
Queens University @ Furman	+0.8	141.1	51%	79–90	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Air Force	+5.0	155.1	67%	85–98	✓
Quinnipiac @ Pittsburgh	+10.7	134.2	82%	83–75	✗
Coastal Carolina @ Illinois State	+1.8	136.0	54%	42–94	✓
McNeese @ George Washington	+9.1	149.4	85%	92–86	✗
UT Martin @ Southern Miss	-3.8	142.6	38%	60–70	✗
Yale @ Charleston	-9.4	145.7	19%	74–63	✓
Youngstown State @ UNC Greensboro	-6.9	153.9	26%	62–68	✗
Bryant @ UConn	+25.2	136.9	91%	49–72	✓
Detroit Mercy @ DePaul	+15.5	144.3	88%	75–95	✓
Tulane @ Boston College	+7.5	129.5	81%	93–90	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.