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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–15 on winners
spread MAE 10.9
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+1.5 | 133.1 | 51% | 78–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.7 | 139.8 | 82% | 60–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 152.5 | 41% | 87–90 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.5 | 150.6 | 18% | 97–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.2 | 158.9 | 24% | 80–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 136.6 | 60% | 94–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.1 | 158.2 | 79% | 75–68 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.6 | 131.2 | 33% | 55–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 140.3 | 53% | 58–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.4 | 140.1 | 88% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 148.8 | 58% | 70–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.9 | 143.2 | 46% | 73–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 136.9 | 90% | 60–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.6 | 144.2 | 90% | 57–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 153.5 | 51% | 81–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 157.3 | 56% | 79–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 144.8 | 62% | 69–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 150.9 | 59% | 74–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 142.1 | 78% | 85–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.6 | 147.1 | 90% | 70–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 149.6 | 74% | 80–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.0 | 142.7 | 71% | 74–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 140.6 | 79% | 61–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 139.3 | 26% | 74–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 145.8 | 81% | 83–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 155.8 | 54% | 83–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.2 | 149.9 | 75% | 84–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 144.8 | 74% | 76–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 150.4 | 42% | 70–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.0 | 148.5 | 29% | 92–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 139.5 | 45% | 78–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 124.2 | 60% | 74–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.0 | 138.1 | 24% | 92–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 133.5 | 32% | 73–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 152.4 | 44% | 61–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.2 | 148.4 | 63% | 88–53 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.