And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–12 on winners spread MAE 10.9 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Eastern Michigan @ Louisville +19.1 150.1 90% 46–87 ✓
James Madison @ Florida International +3.5 149.9 69% 80–72 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Northern Kentucky +12.8 148.1 86% 71–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ The Citadel +3.1 160.4 61% 70–58 ✗
Kansas City @ Lindenwood +5.8 145.1 72% 67–80 ✓
NJIT @ Cincinnati +15.4 134.3 87% 67–94 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Central Connecticut +9.9 134.1 83% 106–108 ✓
Princeton @ Bradley +1.2 135.1 59% 64–88 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Florida Gulf Coast +10.6 153.0 83% 88–93 ✓
New Orleans @ Mississippi State +3.1 149.6 61% 78–81 ✓
Murray State @ McNeese +3.3 161.5 70% 60–73 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Illinois +21.5 156.0 91% 73–87 ✓
Auburn @ Oregon -4.6 144.9 33% 84–73 ✓
Yale @ Akron +1.5 154.4 61% 97–94 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Arkansas State +5.2 146.2 72% 63–74 ✓
Cal Poly @ Northern Arizona -2.1 143.2 40% 87–93 ✗
Radford @ SMU +24.5 152.5 91% 72–89 ✓
Long Island University @ Missouri State +3.6 140.7 64% 75–61 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Loyola Marymount +0.5 141.4 59% 76–65 ✗
UTSA @ Abilene Christian +0.6 136.9 54% 50–61 ✓
Louisiana @ UC Davis +11.3 135.4 85% 56–77 ✓
Gonzaga @ Alabama -4.7 152.9 34% 95–85 ✓
Denver @ Arizona +18.1 148.3 88% 73–103 ✓
San Diego State @ Michigan +8.9 151.7 83% 54–94 ✓
Arizona State @ Texas +6.6 139.4 75% 87–86 ✗
UNLV @ Maryland +0.5 161.6 57% 67–74 ✓
Stony Brook @ Bethune-Cookman +2.2 147.0 61% 61–54 ✗
Towson @ Liberty +6.8 132.5 81% 72–69 ✗
Michigan State @ East Carolina -10.7 139.6 18% 89–56 ✓
Rutgers @ Notre Dame +7.8 138.8 83% 63–68 ✓
Pacific @ Jacksonville -1.7 132.1 46% 68–53 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Delaware +1.4 141.9 57% 60–73 ✓
Tulsa @ San José State -6.4 144.6 27% 81–51 ✓
Creighton @ Iowa State +9.2 149.5 83% 60–78 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Army -2.9 138.7 37% 84–67 ✓
NC State @ Boise State -2.2 145.2 40% 81–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Vermont -0.2 150.7 54% 80–65 ✓
Samford @ Georgia State -5.2 140.4 30% 78–63 ✓
Syracuse @ Kansas +2.6 135.4 64% 60–71 ✓
UTEP @ UAB +9.6 133.7 84% 59–75 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago -10.5 131.4 18% 72–51 ✓
St. John's @ Baylor -3.9 159.6 42% 96–81 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Oral Roberts -4.9 158.2 31% 83–91 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Ohio -7.3 140.8 24% 70–58 ✓
UC San Diego @ Bradley -3.4 140.5 34% 87–77 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ McNeese +7.6 147.7 81% 62–72 ✓
Seton Hall @ USC +1.1 141.9 61% 81–83 ✓
Tennessee @ Houston -0.1 131.2 56% 76–73 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ North Carolina +8.0 143.6 80% 70–85 ✓
Utah Valley @ South Dakota State +8.2 149.1 83% 75–52 ✗
Drexel @ Morgan State -0.5 141.1 44% 71–66 ✓
Tennessee State @ UNC Asheville +4.1 147.3 68% 75–73 ✗
William & Mary @ Abilene Christian -4.2 137.6 31% 92–58 ✓
San Diego @ California Baptist +9.4 136.0 84% 61–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Ohio State +19.9 142.9 90% 60–113 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.