Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–18 on winners spread MAE 9.1 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +9.2 163.7 81% 61–82 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian +0.7 151.9 51% 81–77 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +4.4 150.9 69% 77–90 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +13.3 152.3 88% 60–83 ✓
Cincinnati @ West Virginia +3.4 130.3 65% 59–62 ✓
SMU @ Notre Dame -4.0 146.5 32% 97–73 ✓
NC State @ North Carolina +10.8 146.7 84% 73–97 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ George Washington +1.1 136.2 56% 79–68 ✗
Fordham @ Duquesne +4.5 141.7 70% 64–73 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State +4.3 136.6 69% 60–62 ✓
Evansville @ Indiana State +4.3 148.1 69% 79–74 ✗
Navy @ Colgate +4.6 140.8 69% 75–79 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +2.6 133.5 63% 66–68 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown +3.4 138.9 65% 72–93 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Detroit Mercy +2.8 145.6 65% 80–71 ✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +14.6 151.5 89% 86–91 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +0.6 131.7 55% 49–65 ✓
Mercer @ The Citadel -6.3 143.8 25% 62–52 ✓
East Carolina @ Tulane +2.7 139.0 65% 81–86 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Belmont +0.5 152.1 53% 82–75 ✗
UIC @ Drake +9.3 136.1 82% 57–74 ✓
Furman @ Samford +6.2 148.4 76% 80–72 ✗
UAB @ Rice -0.3 150.9 48% 90–89 ✓
South Florida @ UTSA +2.9 146.2 65% 78–73 ✗
Tulsa @ North Texas +14.3 129.7 87% 44–63 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso +2.1 142.2 61% 64–66 ✓
Bradley @ Illinois State -0.9 146.0 48% 71–82 ✗
South Alabama @ Arkansas State +7.4 141.5 77% 60–56 ✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota -3.0 165.3 36% 80–85 ✗
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +6.2 154.1 75% 77–68 ✗
Omaha @ Kansas City +0.4 141.1 51% 78–66 ✗
Oregon @ Iowa +0.5 158.6 53% 80–78 ✗
UL Monroe @ Texas State +11.3 142.9 86% 63–80 ✓
Arkansas @ Auburn +13.7 150.1 88% 60–67 ✓
Alabama @ Missouri +3.0 174.4 57% 98–110 ✓
St. John's @ DePaul -9.3 140.7 19% 82–58 ✓
UCF @ Oklahoma State +1.1 155.7 56% 95–104 ✓
Miami @ Florida State +10.5 150.7 84% 66–74 ✓
Gonzaga @ Washington State -11.9 157.2 19% 84–63 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver +2.7 147.3 62% 60–71 ✓
San José State @ Utah State +13.1 152.0 88% 57–105 ✓
New Mexico @ Boise State +2.0 145.7 58% 78–86 ✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's +20.9 137.5 91% 66–79 ✓
Rutgers @ Washington +2.2 147.6 59% 89–85 ✗
Marshall @ Old Dominion -2.9 143.7 39% 81–77 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell +5.0 158.4 69% 79–98 ✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton +9.0 139.0 82% 60–79 ✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State +8.8 146.7 81% 70–49 ✗
Maine @ UAlbany -1.8 135.8 45% 68–79 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +8.1 135.2 80% 74–79 ✓
Drexel @ Delaware +0.9 144.1 55% 78–74 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine -8.2 157.5 19% 74–80 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.