Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Horizon League · Calihan Hall · February 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread DETM -1.5 Away covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money DETM -125 / IUIN +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total DETM win
Actual IUIN +9 151 Lost
Massey DETM -2.8 (-11.8) — —
Massey Totals — 145.2 (+5.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 81% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 78% ✗
Baseline Plus ML DETM -1.9 (-10.9) 144.8 (+6.2) 56% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ DETM -2.3 (-11.3) 145.7 (+5.3) 59% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML DETM -2.8 (-11.8) 145.6 (+5.4) 65% ✗
Baseline ML DETM -2.9 (-11.9) 146.9 (+4.1) 59% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 17, 2026 DETM 80 – 77 IUIN
Dec 4, 2025 DETM 92 – 78 IUIN
Jan 9, 2025 IUIN 95 – 61 DETM
Feb 15, 2024 DETM 81 – 66 IUIN
Dec 29, 2023 IUIN 67 – 55 DETM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DETM IUIN
Overall 8-24 10-22
Conference 4-16 6-14
Home 6-7 6-8
Away 2-15 4-12
Neutral 0-2 0-2
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L8 L1
Avg Pts For 66.3 72.4
Avg Pts Against 76.6 79.7
Massey -10.3 (#326) -9.9 (#321)
Bradley-Terry -1.28 (#293) -2.13 (#334)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.83 (#302) -2.44 (#325)
RPI 0.442 (#291) 0.399 (#338)
Shooting & Four Factors DETM IUIN
FG% 40.3% 40.7%
3PT% 33.6% 35.6%
REB / G 37.5 31.8
OREB / G 11.8 11.1
AST / TO 0.83 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.9% 49.4%
TOV% 18.8% 16.7%
ORB% 31.7% 30.6%
FT Rate 21.2% 26.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 56.4%
Opp TOV% 16.0% 16.1%
DRB% 69.2% 67.3%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 29.0%

Game Analysis

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