Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ND -130 SMU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +24 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -4.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -3.7 (-20.3) | 145.3 (+24.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -4.0 (-20.0) | 146.5 (+23.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -3.4 (-20.6) | 148.2 (+21.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -3.7 (-20.3) | 146.1 (+23.9) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | SMU 89 – 81 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#93) | 12.9 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#163) | 2.02 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#132) | 2.35 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#194) | 0.576 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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