Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -750 ND +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +8 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -11.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -10.9 (-2.9) | 151.1 (+18.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -11.3 (-3.3) | 151.6 (+18.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -11.2 (-3.2) | 151.7 (+18.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -12.7 (-4.7) | 153.7 (+16.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | SMU 97 – 73 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#30) | 7.3 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#37) | 0.96 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#36) | 1.39 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#29) | 0.538 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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