Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
American Conference · The Super Pit · February 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNT -14.5 Home covered
O/U 128.5 Under
Money UNT -2000 / TLSA +1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNT win
Actual UNT +19 107 Won
Massey UNT -17.4 (+1.6)
Massey Totals 126.1 (-19.1)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 98%
Efficiency Plus ML UNT -16.0 (+3.0) 126.9 (-19.9) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML UNT -14.3 (+4.7) 129.7 (-22.7) 87%
Baseline ML UNT -14.9 (+4.1) 129.4 (-22.4) 86%
Baseline Plus ML UNT -15.7 (+3.3) 127.2 (-20.2) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 13, 2026 TLSA 9084 UNT
Jan 29, 2026 TLSA 8266 UNT
Jan 4, 2026 UNT 7267 TLSA
Mar 14, 2025 UNT 7759 TLSA
Feb 8, 2024 UNT 6855 TLSA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNT TLSA
Overall 27-9 13-20
Conference 14-4 6-12
Home 17-1 8-9
Away 8-5 3-8
Neutral 2-3 2-3
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.5 70.1
Avg Pts Against 60.6 74.2
Massey 7.9 (#75) -6.3 (#267)
Bradley-Terry 1.58 (#63) -1.11 (#274)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.92 (#65) -1.29 (#267)
RPI 0.601 (#31) 0.425 (#318)
Shooting & Four Factors UNT TLSA
FG% 45.1% 42.7%
3PT% 36.6% 31.2%
REB / G 32.6 37.0
OREB / G 10.3 10.8
AST / TO 0.98 1.15
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.9% 49.4%
TOV% 17.5% 17.2%
ORB% 34.1% 29.5%
FT Rate 28.4% 22.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.6% 50.0%
Opp TOV% 19.7% 14.9%
DRB% 72.9% 69.3%
Opp FT Rate 28.7% 22.1%

Game Analysis

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