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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–8 on winners spread MAE 9.7 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oklahoma @ Florida +13.5 153.8 88% 63–85 ✓
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State +1.4 139.0 55% 54–70 ✓
Purdue @ Michigan State +4.1 145.6 66% 66–75 ✓
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh +11.9 149.5 87% 69–80 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Davidson +2.3 138.2 64% 77–69 ✗
North Florida @ Stetson -5.3 159.9 26% 79–71 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Queens University +11.9 149.5 88% 72–89 ✓
West Georgia @ North Alabama +17.2 149.1 90% 62–80 ✓
Lipscomb @ Eastern Kentucky -1.8 149.4 40% 57–66 ✗
Western Michigan @ Buffalo -0.1 147.6 49% 97–64 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Akron +17.0 153.1 90% 63–73 ✓
Kent State @ Bowling Green -6.0 140.1 24% 91–84 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ohio +4.7 148.7 72% 82–84 ✓
Ball State @ Toledo +5.3 154.2 73% 66–67 ✓
Colorado @ Iowa State +15.6 141.2 88% 65–79 ✓
Texas Tech @ TCU -5.8 138.8 33% 66–69 ✗
Butler @ Xavier +6.5 151.6 75% 63–76 ✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin +5.1 160.4 70% 74–95 ✓
Air Force @ Wyoming +8.8 131.1 78% 62–69 ✓
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +1.2 149.8 59% 86–75 ✗
Houston @ Arizona State -10.2 134.4 17% 80–65 ✓
Seton Hall @ Marquette +17.9 133.1 90% 56–80 ✓
Kansas @ BYU +1.4 143.3 56% 57–91 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Boston College -0.2 143.9 49% 36–54 ✗
Nevada @ Colorado State +3.5 140.2 66% 71–79 ✓
South Carolina @ LSU +5.7 139.9 71% 67–81 ✓
Minnesota @ UCLA +11.3 133.7 86% 64–61 ✗
Fresno State @ San Diego State +16.1 137.3 90% 60–83 ✓
Temple @ Charlotte -1.5 151.0 44% 72–78 ✗
Massachusetts @ VCU +16.2 145.3 89% 51–80 ✓
American University @ Army +0.5 140.0 53% 69–76 ✓
Lafayette @ Holy Cross +1.4 133.2 56% 69–74 ✓
Wofford @ VMI -2.5 140.1 39% 82–43 ✓
Richmond @ La Salle +3.8 141.3 67% 63–58 ✗
Nebraska @ Penn State +0.7 146.9 48% 72–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.