You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–7 on winners spread MAE 9.4 24 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northern Iowa @ Murray State -2.3 134.8 42% 74–67 ✓
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State -14.9 134.2 13% 79–56 ✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman +2.2 144.1 62% 84–71 ✗
Lehigh @ Bucknell +5.6 143.9 73% 50–67 ✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M +0.5 136.8 56% 76–85 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -2.1 152.2 43% 75–61 ✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana -3.8 135.5 33% 88–82 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ East Texas A&M -3.3 132.5 31% 76–74 ✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State +15.6 139.1 90% 57–87 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling +4.9 138.9 68% 48–70 ✓
Nicholls @ New Orleans -6.4 147.7 24% 78–62 ✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State +0.0 130.6 48% 75–65 ✗
Incarnate Word @ UT Rio Grande Valley +4.7 142.9 69% 66–60 ✗
Duke @ Virginia -12.7 134.6 16% 80–62 ✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central +5.7 156.6 74% 92–78 ✗
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +9.4 146.9 83% 84–96 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +7.4 137.9 77% 62–68 ✓
Kansas State @ Utah +3.0 145.0 65% 69–74 ✓
Texas Southern @ Southern +7.2 140.6 79% 57–66 ✓
Arizona @ Baylor +1.8 150.4 56% 74–67 ✗
Villanova @ UConn +6.8 138.2 74% 59–66 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +2.1 141.0 60% 56–72 ✓
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine -5.2 145.1 26% 68–94 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan -4.2 147.5 33% 66–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.