Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -145 ARIZ +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -0.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -1.8 (-8.8) | 150.4 (-9.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -1.2 (-8.2) | 148.2 (-7.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.5 (-8.5) | 151.5 (-10.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -1.9 (-8.9) | 152.0 (-11.0) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | ARIZ 87 – 80 BAY |
| Jan 15, 2025 | ARIZ 81 – 70 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#22) | 20.0 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#36) | 2.57 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#38) | 3.41 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#29) | 0.599 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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