Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -210 BAY +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -5.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -4.9 (+6.1) | 151.5 (-0.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ARIZ -5.1 (+5.9) | 148.3 (+2.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ARIZ -5.3 (+5.7) | 152.0 (-1.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -5.8 (+5.2) | 152.4 (-1.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | ARIZ 87 – 80 BAY |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ARIZ 74 – 67 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#12) | 18.0 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#37) | 2.96 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#33) | 3.71 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#36) | 0.633 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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