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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–15 on winners spread MAE 9.3 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
SMU @ North Texas	-1.5	125.0	44%	66–68	✗
William & Mary @ Hofstra	+11.5	144.4	87%	55–64	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern	-2.3	142.7	39%	77–54	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Delaware	+11.5	148.3	87%	71–90	✓
Drexel @ Towson	-0.5	127.6	47%	67–70	✗
Charleston @ Hampton	-12.3	155.3	15%	107–86	✓
Rider @ Saint Peter's	+8.9	133.9	82%	62–57	✗
Lipscomb @ Florida Gulf Coast	-1.7	145.8	43%	98–72	✓
Merrimack @ Wagner	-2.3	122.9	41%	60–44	✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University	+3.3	136.6	66%	60–63	✓
Sacred Heart @ Saint Francis	-5.5	140.1	29%	71–75	✗
Youngstown State @ IU Indianapolis	-14.4	143.6	13%	78–50	✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State	+1.4	160.7	58%	107–99	✗
Oakland @ Green Bay	-1.7	140.5	45%	59–69	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky	+3.2	150.2	64%	63–58	✗
Bryant @ NJIT	-8.0	144.6	22%	70–55	✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire	+9.4	147.5	84%	73–79	✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State	+9.3	150.7	84%	66–75	✓
Jacksonville @ Eastern Kentucky	+8.6	145.9	81%	59–75	✓
Austin Peay @ Stetson	+2.7	141.8	64%	82–83	✓
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech	+11.1	135.0	86%	54–68	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac	+5.8	147.3	77%	65–79	✓
Lindenwood @ Little Rock	+9.3	147.7	83%	66–80	✓
Grand Canyon @ Stephen F. Austin	-2.3	147.0	38%	53–51	✓
California Baptist @ UT Rio Grande Valley	-5.4	140.8	29%	63–54	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee	+12.1	151.0	88%	71–87	✓
Omaha @ Oral Roberts	+2.7	149.3	64%	67–74	✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+8.7	140.5	82%	66–79	✓
Southern Utah @ Tarleton State	+5.5	146.6	73%	73–70	✗
Florida International @ Western Kentucky	+7.7	150.9	79%	91–105	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin	+10.6	149.2	86%	58–84	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois	+4.2	135.0	67%	59–68	✓
South Alabama @ UL Monroe	-1.9	143.3	44%	66–80	✗
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian	+4.1	144.9	67%	60–82	✓
Arizona State @ Oregon	+6.2	143.4	73%	61–80	✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga	+7.9	147.2	78%	72–77	✓
Western Illinois @ Southern Indiana	-4.1	130.3	28%	73–68	✓
South Dakota @ Denver	+10.6	156.2	86%	110–111	✓
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston	+3.8	139.6	67%	67–79	✓
Montana State @ Sacramento State	-0.7	137.1	48%	70–62	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho	+2.5	137.4	61%	75–60	✗
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington	+6.8	160.3	78%	74–77	✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara	+8.3	148.9	82%	71–94	✓
Portland @ Loyola Marymount	+9.5	146.6	85%	65–92	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge	+4.8	142.5	71%	64–56	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly	-4.7	131.3	27%	54–51	✓
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State	-4.8	146.5	32%	72–61	✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego	+9.7	138.0	85%	65–66	✓
Montana @ Portland State	-5.5	144.6	31%	46–72	✗
Arizona @ Oregon State	-14.4	150.2	14%	80–83	✗
Pacific @ Saint Mary's	+21.6	135.2	91%	28–76	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i	+1.3	134.9	58%	78–61	✗
Arkansas State @ Louisiana	+5.5	148.6	76%	75–81	✓
Ohio @ Kent State	+3.5	150.8	67%	71–64	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.