I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–14 on winners spread MAE 8.8 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
NC State @ Virginia +2.5 129.1 65% 53–59 ✓
Miami @ Notre Dame -5.1 135.6 29% 73–61 ✓
South Florida @ Temple -2.1 140.3 40% 75–69 ✓
Murray State @ Bradley +11.1 141.3 85% 63–71 ✓
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate -6.9 150.3 24% 78–67 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +4.3 139.4 70% 76–64 ✗
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -7.3 144.9 24% 78–59 ✓
Maryland @ Iowa +6.2 144.3 73% 69–67 ✗
Army @ Boston University +3.9 125.8 65% 69–59 ✗
Holy Cross @ American University +10.4 138.9 86% 65–84 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +2.3 149.2 64% 71–68 ✗
Davidson @ Saint Louis -0.7 144.4 49% 84–61 ✓
George Washington @ Richmond +8.4 146.2 80% 74–82 ✓
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland -2.6 129.2 34% 70–44 ✓
Navy @ Bucknell +1.8 134.7 59% 63–71 ✓
Chattanooga @ Wofford -0.5 148.6 51% 79–65 ✓
Samford @ Furman -1.6 162.3 37% 68–78 ✗
Mercer @ The Citadel +3.6 133.8 65% 66–68 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Western Carolina +2.8 132.7 63% 85–82 ✗
Texas State @ Troy +8.2 140.5 79% 65–78 ✓
James Madison @ Old Dominion -11.3 152.2 15% 78–62 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +1.3 148.2 58% 68–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ Coastal Carolina -3.2 140.9 36% 79–63 ✓
North Alabama @ Kennesaw State +5.5 156.7 74% 90–84 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Queens University +5.3 154.5 73% 79–96 ✓
Auburn @ Alabama +4.0 156.9 64% 75–79 ✓
East Carolina @ Wichita State +4.2 138.6 68% 54–52 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee -4.7 122.6 31% 67–75 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Rice -12.4 151.2 15% 69–56 ✓
Tulane @ UTSA -6.8 166.9 24% 88–89 ✗
Indiana State @ UIC -10.2 146.1 18% 89–83 ✓
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois +11.1 133.9 86% 69–75 ✓
Drake @ Missouri State -7.8 141.9 24% 80–83 ✗
Villanova @ St. John's +3.5 143.3 68% 50–70 ✓
Mississippi State @ Florida +2.8 149.7 65% 70–79 ✓
Illinois @ Northwestern -2.5 144.2 40% 91–96 ✗
Marquette @ DePaul -14.7 143.9 13% 86–73 ✓
Kansas State @ Iowa State +10.2 136.0 84% 67–78 ✓
Arkansas @ Ole Miss +6.8 148.2 76% 51–77 ✓
Utah @ Washington State -1.6 145.3 44% 57–79 ✗
Colorado State @ Nevada +1.4 141.7 55% 64–77 ✓
New Mexico @ San José State -11.3 150.2 16% 95–75 ✓
Colorado @ Washington -0.1 151.9 51% 98–81 ✓
Elon @ Campbell +1.3 138.0 61% 68–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson -3.1 144.3 35% 76–60 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine +2.1 143.2 63% 73–81 ✓
Monmouth @ Stony Brook +0.8 143.7 53% 65–72 ✓
Georgia Southern @ App State +16.2 139.0 90% 74–84 ✓
Vermont @ UMass Lowell +3.5 140.0 66% 72–65 ✗
North Florida @ Bellarmine -2.5 139.9 35% 71–63 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.