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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
23–11 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kentucky
@
South Carolina
|
-1.0 | 152.3 | 46% | 62–79 | ✗ |
Texas
@
Oklahoma
|
+6.1 | 141.4 | 75% | 75–60 | ✗ |
Duke
@
Louisville
|
-13.1 | 150.0 | 14% | 83–69 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Minnesota
|
-3.9 | 143.0 | 30% | 61–59 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Georgia Tech
|
-1.3 | 140.8 | 49% | 72–64 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Syracuse
|
+3.8 | 144.4 | 67% | 85–69 | ✗ |
West Virginia
@
UCF
|
+10.1 | 138.6 | 84% | 59–72 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Charlotte
|
+5.9 | 137.3 | 74% | 70–76 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Nebraska
|
+2.7 | 143.0 | 63% | 69–83 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Duquesne
|
+1.6 | 138.2 | 60% | 50–54 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Massachusetts
|
+3.5 | 148.4 | 67% | 78–77 | ✗ |
Loyola Chicago
@
VCU
|
+5.3 | 135.3 | 70% | 67–74 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Buffalo
|
-3.5 | 139.1 | 32% | 87–59 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Bowling Green
|
+2.4 | 148.2 | 65% | 90–84 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Central Michigan
|
-0.1 | 138.6 | 53% | 55–71 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Western Michigan
|
+6.3 | 141.5 | 77% | 56–73 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Akron
|
+11.0 | 145.3 | 85% | 58–67 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Northern Iowa
|
+9.8 | 141.3 | 84% | 63–70 | ✓ |
Belmont
@
Illinois State
|
-0.2 | 139.4 | 51% | 67–77 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Northern Illinois
|
-3.1 | 152.8 | 37% | 89–73 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Creighton
|
+7.3 | 145.2 | 80% | 78–85 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Purdue
|
+16.0 | 156.7 | 89% | 67–99 | ✓ |
Houston
@
BYU
|
+0.5 | 131.7 | 51% | 75–68 | ✗ |
San Diego
@
Portland
|
+0.4 | 149.8 | 54% | 85–81 | ✗ |
Boston College
@
Virginia Tech
|
+5.6 | 146.3 | 72% | 71–76 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
San Diego State
|
+15.0 | 144.1 | 89% | 65–81 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Texas A&M
|
+10.5 | 142.1 | 84% | 57–63 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Oklahoma State
|
-6.5 | 145.4 | 25% | 74–69 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Fresno State
|
-9.7 | 135.5 | 17% | 72–68 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
UNLV
|
+11.4 | 138.0 | 87% | 90–58 | ✗ |
East Tennessee State
@
VMI
|
-9.1 | 146.1 | 18% | 74–73 | ✓ |
Radford
@
UNC Asheville
|
+4.2 | 144.9 | 71% | 69–81 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Seton Hall
|
+2.8 | 140.2 | 67% | 67–63 | ✗ |
LSU
@
Georgia
|
+3.4 | 147.7 | 69% | 66–68 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.