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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–2 on winners
spread MAE 6.1
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wake Forest
@
North Carolina
|
+10.6 | 153.1 | 84% | 64–85 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Colgate
|
+8.8 | 141.1 | 83% | 57–60 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
SE Louisiana
|
+4.1 | 135.7 | 68% | 62–71 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-5.3 | 138.7 | 26% | 62–61 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Incarnate Word
|
-3.7 | 146.9 | 32% | 78–74 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Lamar
|
+5.5 | 142.6 | 74% | 65–76 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Houston Christian
|
+1.6 | 149.4 | 58% | 80–88 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Alcorn State
|
-0.5 | 142.0 | 44% | 78–90 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-6.7 | 133.6 | 22% | 81–70 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Kansas
|
+5.1 | 142.7 | 74% | 69–74 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Stony Brook
|
-1.1 | 141.3 | 46% | 80–74 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Jackson State
|
+3.5 | 135.5 | 67% | 64–73 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Montana
|
+3.0 | 146.1 | 67% | 62–77 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Montana State
|
+4.3 | 137.1 | 67% | 70–77 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
|
-0.4 | 158.6 | 47% | 72–76 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
La Salle
|
-11.2 | 140.6 | 15% | 66–54 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Georgetown
|
-4.6 | 147.6 | 31% | 90–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.