Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -154 PV +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +12 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -0.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -0.8 (+11.2) | 144.1 (+23.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -0.5 (+12.5) | 142.0 (+26.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.6 (+12.6) | 142.2 (+25.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -0.6 (+12.6) | 146.5 (+21.5) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-3 | 5-6 |
| Away | 7-14 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#329) | -8.1 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#340) | -0.39 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.47 (#351) | -0.53 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#302) | 0.469 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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