Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–22 on winners spread MAE 10.7 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Eastern Kentucky @ Western Kentucky +3.4 154.5 65% 80–85 ✓
Stetson @ Florida International +10.9 133.3 83% 65–72 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Merrimack +2.4 126.1 55% 61–57 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Fresno State +10.6 126.8 83% 43–61 ✓
High Point @ Elon +1.6 140.2 51% 83–77 ✗
Old Dominion @ George Mason +10.2 132.8 85% 60–50 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Long Beach State +0.9 149.5 52% 77–74 ✗
Duquesne @ Marshall +9.8 157.5 82% 71–72 ✓
Dartmouth @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.2 143.7 70% 68–78 ✓
Youngstown State @ Green Bay +0.3 135.9 52% 82–58 ✗
Southern @ Akron +4.4 134.4 67% 62–79 ✓
Alabama @ Gonzaga +2.7 154.4 61% 91–82 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Murray State +10.2 134.0 80% 87–93 ✓
Portland State @ Weber State +14.9 135.1 89% 69–80 ✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado +9.3 140.7 84% 75–78 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State -2.9 130.6 36% 73–70 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Houston Christian -1.0 142.2 45% 85–67 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Grand Canyon +21.2 141.7 91% 44–91 ✓
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton +8.0 136.6 77% 57–66 ✓
South Alabama @ Jacksonville State +3.1 140.1 57% 74–64 ✗
Iowa State @ Creighton +2.0 139.1 52% 64–58 ✗
Southern Miss @ Southern Illinois +10.7 130.7 85% 41–66 ✓
UNLV @ San Francisco +14.3 137.0 88% 62–83 ✓
Northwestern @ Maryland -2.6 141.7 42% 67–61 ✓
Fairfield @ Niagara +5.6 135.0 74% 81–71 ✗
Monmouth @ Canisius -9.7 143.0 20% 79–65 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Wofford +7.8 142.6 76% 62–88 ✓
Hartford @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.7 139.3 47% 68–55 ✗
UMBC @ Delaware +3.6 154.7 65% 60–70 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ UCF +12.8 145.8 87% 45–81 ✓
Georgetown @ South Carolina +7.4 144.4 78% 67–80 ✓
Minnesota @ Mississippi State +6.3 132.8 70% 81–76 ✗
Richmond @ Northern Iowa +1.6 152.8 51% 60–52 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Brown +7.8 139.7 77% 66–79 ✓
NJIT @ Lafayette +1.7 133.3 50% 90–86 ✗
North Florida @ Florida Atlantic +7.2 148.7 74% 41–76 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ UIC +2.2 145.3 65% 64–56 ✗
Denver @ Texas State +10.9 143.9 82% 58–71 ✓
Marist @ Rider +1.8 137.6 57% 79–67 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan +8.6 143.5 84% 90–73 ✗
Siena @ Saint Peter's +9.6 138.1 85% 60–58 ✗
Western Illinois @ Central Michigan -8.7 146.9 19% 97–70 ✓
Valparaiso @ Western Michigan -2.1 145.7 41% 71–60 ✓
Belmont @ Samford -3.6 153.8 38% 85–73 ✓
St. Thomas @ Drake +8.5 149.9 77% 64–74 ✓
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech -1.0 151.5 47% 79–62 ✓
Arizona @ Oregon State -13.8 146.9 17% 90–65 ✓
Cal Poly @ San Diego +11.1 129.1 83% 51–52 ✓
VMI @ Seattle U +11.4 146.5 84% 89–82 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Troy +6.8 144.0 72% 72–68 ✗
Chattanooga @ Lipscomb +0.2 144.4 47% 85–64 ✗
Xavier @ Oklahoma State +4.4 134.4 64% 77–71 ✗
California @ Utah +9.8 140.5 86% 58–66 ✓
Kansas State @ Wichita State +7.7 132.4 77% 65–59 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.