Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–12 on winners spread MAE 9.1 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Longwood @ High Point +8.4 154.4 81% 72–83 ✓
Saint Francis @ Stonehill +3.0 136.7 59% 74–79 ✓
Wagner @ Le Moyne +1.0 133.0 57% 68–72 ✓
Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson +8.0 142.1 81% 49–91 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Central Connecticut +12.1 135.0 86% 63–73 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +10.8 131.8 85% 59–79 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +4.2 145.7 67% 46–58 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State +3.9 146.5 69% 75–97 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia Southern -2.6 144.5 37% 77–72 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -8.8 125.8 20% 64–46 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +5.8 151.0 74% 66–86 ✓
Campbell @ Northeastern -0.4 139.9 46% 58–67 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Elon +10.9 144.5 83% 60–59 ✗
Delaware @ Towson +6.7 140.0 78% 70–75 ✓
Drexel @ Hampton -0.2 137.2 51% 58–63 ✗
Hofstra @ William & Mary +1.8 143.3 59% 60–61 ✓
North Florida @ North Alabama +10.5 162.8 85% 70–83 ✓
West Georgia @ Eastern Kentucky +12.1 151.8 88% 73–95 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -6.7 142.2 25% 72–60 ✓
Jacksonville @ Central Arkansas -10.0 140.9 18% 77–62 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Louisiana Tech +4.4 143.1 70% 69–47 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston -2.3 144.2 42% 61–66 ✗
Marshall @ South Alabama +3.9 135.6 66% 82–91 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Austin Peay -3.1 143.4 45% 60–73 ✗
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian -2.4 139.1 44% 59–75 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Tarleton State -10.4 135.8 16% 64–60 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota +2.3 153.5 61% 72–79 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State +10.1 152.1 81% 85–98 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota +5.4 152.6 67% 68–64 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock +6.3 132.7 74% 75–79 ✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb +20.4 148.6 91% 60–93 ✓
Maryland @ Nebraska -1.0 148.8 50% 83–75 ✓
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah +3.8 138.6 66% 74–76 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois -1.0 135.0 36% 62–87 ✗
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville +6.3 136.0 72% 76–71 ✗
Morehead State @ Lindenwood +0.4 132.0 56% 60–73 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -2.7 144.2 28% 66–49 ✓
Memphis @ South Florida -9.8 151.7 19% 80–65 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana +4.2 147.3 74% 68–81 ✓
Weber State @ Montana State +7.9 140.2 79% 66–74 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Davis +0.5 136.0 48% 74–75 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +12.0 153.1 85% 88–94 ✓
Liberty @ New Mexico State -4.5 133.1 30% 64–54 ✓
Florida International @ UTEP +7.5 142.4 79% 63–77 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield -12.1 144.0 15% 73–54 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State -8.7 147.7 16% 77–61 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton -4.0 152.8 34% 98–83 ✓
San Diego @ Pepperdine +7.0 149.5 78% 81–88 ✓
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +11.1 135.5 86% 83–58 ✗
Oregon State @ Portland -13.7 148.9 18% 72–84 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine +9.8 143.5 82% 60–62 ✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +12.3 148.5 86% 77–88 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +9.4 139.9 82% 60–62 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth +1.7 155.5 61% 56–78 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Niagara -0.1 136.1 50% 84–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.