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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
40–11 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
51 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-5.2 | 136.6 | 29% | 67–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.7 | 139.9 | 86% | 54–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 145.2 | 62% | 62–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 137.1 | 78% | 61–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 152.2 | 81% | 76–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 140.0 | 86% | 61–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 147.8 | 72% | 81–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.6 | 142.3 | 81% | 48–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 132.8 | 85% | 59–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 141.4 | 42% | 72–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 144.4 | 39% | 81–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 138.8 | 76% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 137.0 | 56% | 73–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 141.2 | 67% | 66–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.9 | 158.1 | 66% | 71–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 130.2 | 72% | 70–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.2 | 139.1 | 54% | 49–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 146.5 | 60% | 77–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 140.9 | 74% | 78–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 131.0 | 80% | 57–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 156.4 | 85% | 75–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 134.7 | 72% | 53–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 157.0 | 81% | 70–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 153.9 | 69% | 72–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 132.4 | 50% | 62–50 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 132.9 | 61% | 78–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 138.9 | 59% | 73–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.0 | 132.3 | 41% | 69–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 150.6 | 40% | 90–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 140.3 | 56% | 54–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 138.1 | 67% | 69–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 154.2 | 53% | 73–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 133.0 | 82% | 69–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 147.8 | 77% | 66–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 136.7 | 79% | 61–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 133.1 | 43% | 60–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.6 | 140.1 | 82% | 70–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 125.1 | 81% | 51–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 127.6 | 84% | 51–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 144.4 | 60% | 61–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.0 | 131.7 | 87% | 55–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 144.5 | 83% | 57–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 136.1 | 80% | 54–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 132.3 | 67% | 81–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 134.5 | 58% | 70–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 138.8 | 39% | 84–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 129.0 | 50% | 60–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 136.4 | 62% | 64–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 144.3 | 86% | 51–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 140.5 | 57% | 79–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.3 | 148.0 | 69% | 77–101 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.