Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | MTST -345 NAU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -6.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.0 (+1.0) | 140.7 (+22.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -7.1 (-0.1) | 138.3 (+24.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -5.5 (+1.5) | 141.6 (+21.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -5.9 (+1.1) | 140.9 (+22.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#115) | -2.6 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#101) | -0.97 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#105) | -0.96 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#64) | 0.455 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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