Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | AKR -345 BUF +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +24 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -6.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+32.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -5.1 (+18.9) | 147.0 (+31.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -4.8 (+19.2) | 145.8 (+32.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -4.6 (+19.4) | 146.7 (+31.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -4.3 (+19.7) | 148.0 (+30.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#102) | -1.7 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#108) | -0.22 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#123) | -0.37 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#96) | 0.503 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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