Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | CONN -278 PROV +222 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -7.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -6.1 (+0.9) | 147.8 (-8.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -5.8 (+1.2) | 145.4 (-6.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -7.2 (-0.2) | 149.1 (-10.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.7 (+0.3) | 147.8 (-8.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W6 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#5) | 10.6 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#14) | 1.79 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#8) | 2.36 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#27) | 0.552 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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