Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -400 SJU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -8.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -7.5 (-5.5) | 158.5 (-16.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -7.1 (-5.1) | 156.4 (-14.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -8.1 (-6.1) | 157.6 (-15.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -7.3 (-5.3) | 157.0 (-15.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SJU 76 – 70 MARQ |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SJU 92 – 68 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJU 86 – 84 MARQ |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 64 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#14) | 6.1 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#9) | 1.07 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#7) | 1.51 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#22) | 0.508 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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