Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UMES -235 MORG +192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -3.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -3.4 (+12.6) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -2.8 (+13.2) | 137.2 (+6.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -3.2 (+12.8) | 135.8 (+8.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -3.0 (+13.0) | 136.4 (+7.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MORG 79 – 71 UMES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UMES 66 – 49 MORG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MORG 75 – 72 UMES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MORG 76 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MORG 70 – 65 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#248) | -8.1 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#183) | -0.80 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#200) | -1.29 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#140) | 0.493 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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