Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | NEV -180 SJSU +152 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -5.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -3.5 (-7.5) | 130.8 (+27.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -4.2 (-8.2) | 129.6 (+28.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -4.4 (-8.4) | 131.3 (+26.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -4.1 (-8.1) | 132.3 (+25.7) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SJSU 87 – 71 NEV |
| Jan 21, 2026 | NEV 87 – 54 SJSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NEV 73 – 58 SJSU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NEV 75 – 64 SJSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NEV 84 – 63 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#51) | 4.5 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#38) | 1.29 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#46) | 1.50 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#21) | 0.551 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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