Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | IONA -1100 MSM +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +20 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -14.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -13.3 (+6.7) | 137.7 (-9.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -13.8 (+6.2) | 137.7 (-9.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -12.9 (+7.1) | 139.5 (-11.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -12.7 (+7.3) | 139.9 (-11.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSM 83 – 76 IONA |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MSM 66 – 59 IONA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MSM 63 – 49 IONA |
| Feb 7, 2025 | IONA 70 – 67 MSM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSM 72 – 65 IONA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-1 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#66) | -5.7 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#86) | -1.18 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#91) | -1.55 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#30) | 0.459 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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