Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -800 GTWN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +32 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -10.6 (+21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -9.2 (+22.8) | 140.9 (-12.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -10.5 (+21.5) | 139.7 (-11.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -9.6 (+22.4) | 142.2 (-14.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -9.6 (+22.4) | 142.3 (-14.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-12 |
| Away | 5-9 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#75) | -2.6 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#80) | -0.83 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#77) | -0.83 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#125) | 0.432 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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