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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–20 on winners spread MAE 8.4 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Memphis @ Wichita State -2.7 152.2 34% 83–78 ✓
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic +18.4 152.1 90% 66–106 ✓
UTEP @ Florida International +1.0 137.0 55% 87–82 ✗
North Texas @ Charlotte -0.3 126.0 36% 49–55 ✗
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb +0.5 132.5 46% 75–63 ✗
Stonehill @ Wagner +2.2 128.3 59% 44–54 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Sacred Heart +5.4 137.0 69% 70–63 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis +0.1 158.6 53% 72–82 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack +3.6 130.2 60% 54–70 ✓
Wright State @ Oakland -2.6 162.4 46% 68–75 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy +2.7 141.4 62% 67–64 ✗
Elon @ William & Mary +2.5 136.2 61% 60–73 ✓
Towson @ Charleston +11.3 152.0 86% 75–83 ✓
Delaware @ North Carolina A&T -0.9 145.9 46% 73–71 ✓
Monmouth @ Hampton +3.6 141.6 70% 81–86 ✓
Stony Brook @ UNC Wilmington +11.1 133.3 84% 69–76 ✓
Northeastern @ Drexel +6.6 131.7 76% 48–75 ✓
Rice @ UAB +11.9 163.0 86% 57–85 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.0 153.8 42% 88–81 ✓
California Baptist @ Sam Houston +10.0 129.9 81% 45–56 ✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis -9.6 139.7 18% 75–81 ✗
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans -5.0 154.3 32% 82–88 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Lamar -3.4 148.5 38% 83–60 ✓
McNeese @ Houston Christian +1.1 155.1 56% 80–85 ✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State -3.4 137.8 39% 58–77 ✗
St. Thomas @ North Dakota State +0.8 149.9 53% 64–73 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota -13.2 154.7 13% 82–70 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +9.2 137.4 84% 50–73 ✓
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville +7.8 156.1 80% 79–74 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +10.1 145.4 83% 84–80 ✗
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word -6.5 145.9 27% 71–66 ✓
Michigan @ Rutgers +5.9 134.5 71% 58–45 ✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington -3.4 145.0 32% 86–76 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana +3.8 153.2 68% 82–79 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee +2.7 148.2 68% 94–96 ✓
Northwestern @ Illinois +5.4 136.9 71% 62–66 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +1.3 148.9 58% 66–76 ✓
USC @ Colorado +2.8 143.1 62% 84–65 ✗
Washington @ California -8.2 132.0 19% 65–56 ✓
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +3.7 155.9 67% 88–82 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood -2.5 146.8 38% 102–105 ✗
Sacramento State @ Montana State +9.3 131.9 81% 56–60 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +3.3 142.0 67% 55–65 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State -1.9 141.7 35% 89–82 ✓
Cleveland State @ Green Bay -13.5 136.6 13% 76–65 ✓
Pacific @ Saint Mary's +17.5 142.6 89% 52–83 ✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara +11.6 162.4 87% 82–91 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Santa Barbara +5.4 149.7 70% 73–78 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge -0.4 131.4 45% 68–75 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine +12.3 139.6 87% 99–91 ✗
UCLA @ Utah -4.1 131.9 33% 78–71 ✓
San Diego @ Gonzaga +19.9 170.5 90% 72–97 ✓
Washington State @ Stanford +0.5 138.3 47% 67–63 ✗
Portland @ San Francisco +6.7 156.9 79% 89–92 ✓
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i +3.4 135.7 66% 54–52 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.