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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–20 on winners spread MAE 8.5 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rice @ Florida International +0.9 149.6 55% 78–80 ✓
Old Dominion @ Western Kentucky +8.9 139.5 84% 64–73 ✓
UTSA @ Louisiana Tech +15.5 149.1 89% 71–95 ✓
Charlotte @ Marshall +0.4 152.6 51% 99–84 ✗
Hampton @ Longwood +12.3 139.4 87% 72–76 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh +2.6 132.8 65% 68–62 ✗
Princeton @ Yale +0.5 146.3 43% 81–75 ✗
Cornell @ Harvard +1.7 149.4 53% 72–77 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth +10.8 137.2 85% 50–79 ✓
Stetson @ Liberty +12.9 141.6 87% 82–88 ✓
UIC @ Robert Morris +0.2 145.0 51% 96–88 ✗
James Madison @ UNC Wilmington +2.7 147.4 68% 77–78 ✓
Central Michigan @ Toledo +21.0 155.0 91% 66–68 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas -1.1 161.7 42% 76–83 ✗
Kansas @ West Virginia -5.4 145.9 31% 71–58 ✓
Oregon State @ Arizona State +7.9 145.0 82% 53–73 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +8.8 131.0 79% 58–78 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis +5.1 135.3 71% 79–81 ✓
DePaul @ Seton Hall +9.2 143.2 81% 64–66 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Weber State +4.0 157.5 67% 83–79 ✗
Sacramento State @ Idaho State +2.0 131.2 50% 80–75 ✗
New Mexico State @ Grand Canyon +2.6 133.4 58% 82–66 ✗
Sam Houston @ UT Rio Grande Valley -5.0 145.5 28% 67–61 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +7.8 149.3 84% 74–77 ✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +5.5 144.0 77% 74–79 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV -1.6 142.4 50% 51–72 ✗
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga +15.8 162.3 90% 69–81 ✓
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech -8.2 139.8 27% 75–80 ✗
Oregon @ Arizona +15.0 153.6 88% 81–84 ✓
Washington @ UCLA +15.4 149.1 89% 50–76 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific -0.8 141.1 48% 68–69 ✗
Colorado @ Stanford +1.9 140.8 58% 70–53 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC Santa Barbara +1.6 143.1 62% 71–84 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge -6.3 137.8 25% 81–73 ✓
BYU @ Saint Mary's +6.3 138.9 78% 64–69 ✓
San Diego State @ Fresno State +0.5 123.2 49% 61–44 ✗
Providence @ Butler -4.1 136.3 30% 71–70 ✓
Houston @ Wichita State -6.7 134.7 24% 76–74 ✓
Michigan @ Wisconsin +4.4 137.3 70% 63–77 ✓
NJIT @ Maine -3.1 129.9 37% 61–65 ✗
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy +0.2 144.2 53% 75–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Iona +11.2 139.9 86% 58–76 ✓
Temple @ Cincinnati +5.3 138.3 70% 75–71 ✗
East Carolina @ UCF +8.4 142.4 80% 66–69 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee -3.4 139.5 28% 81–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Northern Iowa +0.2 143.8 53% 75–95 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist +6.8 145.1 78% 66–67 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Siena -2.1 130.9 46% 70–84 ✗
Rider @ Manhattan +2.4 141.5 63% 78–84 ✓
George Mason @ Fordham -1.6 139.5 43% 47–50 ✗
Memphis @ SMU +1.2 147.0 58% 57–73 ✓
Marquette @ Creighton +2.0 143.6 67% 82–83 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +5.9 137.6 74% 71–66 ✗
Cleveland State @ Green Bay -9.9 141.2 17% 79–67 ✓
New Mexico @ San José State -5.7 151.6 26% 55–71 ✗
Stony Brook @ Hartford -0.3 154.3 46% 70–74 ✗
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland +4.4 138.6 66% 42–69 ✓
Rutgers @ Purdue +12.0 144.3 87% 72–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.