Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +13 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -3.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -5.0 (+8.0) | 140.4 (+14.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -2.1 (+10.9) | 142.1 (+12.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -1.6 (+11.4) | 143.1 (+11.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -2.5 (+10.5) | 142.1 (+12.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | UCSB 74 – 71 LBSU |
| Dec 5, 2025 | UCSB 84 – 77 LBSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UCSB 58 – 56 LBSU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UCSB 85 – 54 LBSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCSB 76 – 74 LBSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 12-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#141) | 0.3 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#247) | 0.70 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#225) | 0.87 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#301) | 0.547 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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