Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UL -8.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -7.2 (-2.2) | 142.6 (+10.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -5.8 (-0.8) | 143.6 (+9.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -5.5 (-0.5) | 144.0 (+9.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -5.8 (-0.8) | 144.4 (+8.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UL 85 – 79 ULM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UL 76 – 62 ULM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UL 73 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UL 65 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#200) | -6.9 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#216) | -0.52 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#204) | -0.70 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#226) | 0.479 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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