Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -125 MOST +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +20 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -1.5 (+21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -0.4 (+20.4) | 141.9 (+28.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -0.3 (+20.3) | 142.9 (+27.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -0.2 (+19.8) | 143.8 (+26.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -0.7 (+19.3) | 143.9 (+26.1) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNI 66 – 61 MOST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | UNI 79 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UNI 72 – 65 MOST |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UNI 64 – 62 MOST |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UNI 69 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#105) | 9.1 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#130) | 1.02 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#128) | 1.63 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#74) | 0.551 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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