Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 117.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +17 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -0.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 107.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.5 (-16.5) | 117.9 (-12.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -0.6 (-17.6) | 122.2 (-17.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -0.5 (-17.5) | 123.2 (-18.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -0.8 (-17.8) | 117.9 (-12.9) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 52 FRES |
| Feb 19, 2025 | SDSU 83 – 60 FRES |
| Dec 5, 2024 | SDSU 84 – 62 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SDSU 73 – 41 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 47 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 13-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 58.1 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#64) | 10.8 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#88) | 2.13 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#75) | 2.61 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#103) | 0.592 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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