Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | OAK -200 NKU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +5 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | OAK -7.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -4.9 (-9.9) | 135.8 (+1.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -6.2 (-11.2) | 137.6 (-0.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -5.9 (-10.9) | 137.6 (-0.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -5.6 (-10.6) | 136.6 (+0.4) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OAK 76 – 65 NKU |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OAK 82 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NKU 84 – 75 OAK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OAK 68 – 53 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#136) | -3.2 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#143) | -0.79 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#156) | -1.13 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#76) | 0.469 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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