Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -6.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -4.4 (-2.4) | 134.0 (+26.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -5.1 (-3.1) | 134.9 (+25.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -5.1 (-3.1) | 135.3 (+24.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -5.4 (-3.4) | 136.3 (+23.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCD 80 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUB 81 – 79 UCD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | CSUB 75 – 64 UCD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CSUB 75 – 56 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 5-6 | 2-12 |
| Home | 7-5 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#219) | -6.5 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#195) | -1.78 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#209) | -2.06 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#228) | 0.411 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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